Renewable sources could provide nearly half
of the energy used to heat Europe’s homes by 2040, according to a new
study from IHS Inc. (Englewood, Colorado, U.S.).
Tightening existing regulations could lower
end-user natural gas demand by half within the next 20 to 25 years, and
reduce residential carbon dioxide emissions by more than 75 percent by
2050, IHS finds.
This reduction would move Europe closer to achieving
the European Union (EU) 2030 and 2050 climate targets. The heating
sector is the focus of increased attention from policy makers following
the release of the first European Heating and Cooling Strategy on
February 16th.
Europe’s share of renewable residential heat could reach 49 percent by 2040
According to the IHS Energy multi-client study
“Beyond the Flame: The Transformation of Europe’s Heat Sector”, the
share of renewable heat used in the residential sector could reach
49 percent by 2040, which is significant since heating and cooling
accounts for almost half of European energy consumption and presents a
major opportunity for greenhouse gas reductions.
The majority of residential energy consumption in Europe is used to heat space and water.
The IHS study evaluated a range of technology
options as well as building refurbishment measures based on their
levelized costs and ease of installation in existing buildings to
identify the most practical and affordable solutions to reduce energy
consumption, improve energy efficiency, and increase the share of the
renewable heat.
“At the current pace of change in the heat sector,
Europe will fall short of the 2030 and 2050 goals, but more rapid change
is possible,” said Catherine Robinson, senior director at IHS Energy,
and one of the authors of the study.
Hybrid heating systems combining a high-efficiency condensing gas boiler with an air-source heat pump
“Our analysis strongly suggests that existing
technology can transform Europe’s heat sector – significantly increasing
the share of low-cost renewable heat – in the next 15 years by using
existing legislation to introduce hybrid heating systems, which combine a
high-efficiency condensing gas boiler with an air-source heat pump.”
The study found that the development of these
integrated hybrid systems may transform the provision of heat in the
areas of Europe where gas is currently the dominant heating fuel.
Approximately 60 percent of the space heat provided
by the heating system is provided by the heat pump, while the remaining
40 percent is provided by a high-efficiency condensing gas boiler.
Europe’s heat supply is dominated by de-centralised
heating in single family homes which make up 64 percent of European
housing stock. These single family homes consume 65 percent of
residential space and water heating demand, IHS said.
“The heat transformation would make a big difference
in the countries that have a lot of gas heating, like the UK, Germany,
the Netherlands, France or Italy,” Deborah Mann, director at IHS Energy
said.
“The key finding of our IHS analysis is that hybrid
heating systems can directly replace most existing gas boilers without
the need for significant building refurbishment, unlike standalone heat
pumps. From an environmental standpoint, these hybrid systems can
provide large-scale, cost-effective reductions in GHG emissions,” she
said.
There are currently 93 million gas-fired boilers
installed in the EU, according to the IHS study. Additionally, the IHS
report found that the additional cost for the end-user is small compared
to the alternatives. As an example, for a large household in the UK,
the initial investment is approximately EUR 3,000 more than for a
traditional condensing boiler, but owing to the lower fuel bills, the
additional cost to the consumer over the life of the boiler is less than
EUR 70 per year.
A key benefit of a technology-driven transformation
of the heat sector is that no new European legislation would be required
because existing directives already provide the framework.
IHS believes that the Ecodesign Directive is the
critical piece of enabling legislation to achieve these gains. In the
residential sector, IHS estimates that this single measure would reduce
EU’s CO2 emissions by 50 million metric tons per year and gas consumption by 25 billion cubic metres (Bcm) when fully implemented.
This is in addition a previous Ecodesign measure (in
place since September 2015) that is expected to save 100 million metric
tons per year once fully implemented by requiring the installation of
high-efficiency boilers across the European Union.
“Adopting a tighter standard for residential heating
and cooling could transform the residential heating sector, it would
cut by more than half the volume of gas burned in homes and increase the
share of renewables to almost 50 percent by 2040,” said Robinson.
By reducing direct gas consumption, a large-scale
roll-out of hybrid systems would undermine volume-based tariffs, the IHS
analysis noted. However, it could, in conjunction with smart-home
energy management systems, also facilitate the development of the
long-promised residential energy services company model, and provide
utility companies with a path to new revenue streams, as well as
providing a route to meet future supply obligations IHS said.
“Utilities can support consumers by installing new
heating systems, especially hybrid systems, which could be a route to
meeting future climate goals,” Mann said.
If combined with an energy management contract, this
could be a valuable and sustainable new source of revenue. This
alternative to volume-based sales models is a crucial point, since it
represents an approach to decarbonization in which forward-looking
business interests and policymaking can work together.”
While significant uncertainty remains about the
future shape of the European heat sector, it is clear that the pace of
change in the sector will accelerate in the future and will become
increasingly intertwined with the power sector, from both a policy and
an operational point of view.
However, given the local nature of heat provision
across the EU member states, national and even local, policy will be a
key driver of change, IHS concludes.
source:http://www.solarserver.com
EDF Renewable Energy (EDF RE, Paris, France) and MCE Clean Energy (San Rafael, CA, U.S.) on May 12th,
2016 announced the completion of construction on a 1.11 MWp solar
photovoltaic (PV) carport installation at the Buck Institute for
Research on Aging in Novato, California.
