The
Scottish Government recently launched a consultation on a revised
energy strategy. The existing policy is to produce the equivalent of
100% of our electricity from renewable sources by 2020. The new policy
is to produce the equivalent of 50% of all energy consumed from
renewable sources by 2030 – in 13 years time. Electricity currently
represents 22% of energy consumption and we are now at 59% renewables,
suggesting that 13% of all energy currently comes from renewable
sources. The new plan calls for renewable output to increase
approximately 4 fold. It is also planned that our two nuclear power
stations will close in this time frame.
Space heating currently consumes 53% of energy and is predominantly
provided by natural gas. The new plan calls for hydrogen derived from
natural gas combined with CCS to sequester the CO2. Scotland is to
become world leader in the hydrogen economy. I suspect we will find
ourselves leading a group of 1 country that may quickly go to the wall
should these proposals be implemented.
[Image is Whitelee wind farm just south of Glasgow is the UK’s
largest onshore wind farm. 215 turbines have a combined capacity of 539
MW.]
The consultation report –
Scottish Energy Strategy: The future of energy in Scotland – is drenched in the language of fake Green science.
But the report does contain an informative chapter on the current Scottish energy system that is to be the focus of this post.
I have used 10 of the 13 diagrams from this chapter of the report but
have provided my own narrative on what the data actually shows and the
diagrams are not posted in order. This is the first of a number of posts
on this subject where I hope to engage with well-informed and
interested parties across Scotland.
The new policy is summarised in this statement from Energy Minister, Paul Wheelhouse:
A new 2030 ‘all energy’ renewables target is proposed in
this draft Energy Strategy – setting an ambitious challenge to deliver
the equivalent of half of Scotland’s heat, transport and electricity
needs from renewable sources and drawing together the ambition for a
full transition in each area of energy supply and use.
And it is worth documenting this passage from page 49:
146. Looking ahead to 2050, this Energy Strategy must
consider a future after the current generation of nuclear electricity
plants in Scotland. The Scottish Government’s policy is that these
plants should not be replaced with new nuclear generation, under current
technologies.
From which it is clear that Scotland aims to decarbonise its energy
sector without using nuclear power, the one technology proven to deliver
the stated goals of reliable, affordable and low C electricity.
Hunterston B power station is scheduled to close in 2023 and Torness in
2030. The latter will likely be extended. Scotland therefore will find
itself in the same absurd situation as Germany where expanding
renewables cannot compensate for lost nuclear capacity and CO2 emissions
rise.
Current Energy Use and Sources
Diagram 1 Primary energy supply in Scotland is
still dominated by FF that account for 91%. But most of this is exported
in the form of oil and gas. Note that this graphic is dated 2014 and
coal production (7%) most probably went to Longannet power station that
has since closed. Where renewables fit into consumption is not made
clear but they are probably part of “electricity”. It is difficult to
reconcile this graphic with Diagram 6 that shows 53% of energy consumed
going to heating, which does not tally with 27% of consumption from gas.
I suspect Diagram 6 is correct and that petroleum products and natural
gas are transposed in Diagram 1.
Thanks to the oil and gas industry, Scotland already exports 74% of
the energy produced (84% of 88%) (Diagram 1). There are a couple of
interesting points from this graphic. Notably 12% of 860 TWh not
consumed goes to conversion losses (power stations?) energy industry own
use and distribution losses (power lines and pipelines?). These losses
amount to 103 TWh, a non-trivial amount compared with the 169 TWh
consumed.
Diagram 6 How energy is used in Scotland. See
caption to Diagram 1. Natural gas is the main fuel used for space
heating (Diagram 7) and consumption has declined as energy prices rose
(Diagram 9).
Diagram 6 (above) shows the current configuration of energy demand in
Scotland. Heat accounts for 53% of all energy consumed, and 79% of that
is provided by natural gas with a further 7% coming from oil (Diagram
7, below).
So if I understand correctly, Scotland is going to aim to replace the
existing reliance on FF for space heating with renewable energy by 2030
amounting to half of 53% of 169TWh = 89.6 TWh.
Diagram 7 Mains gas accounts for 79% of space
heating in Scotland. Rural communities that have no mains supply use
either fuel oil or liquefied gas (propane?). “Other” will include coal
and wood.
Diagram 8 shows that 74% of energy consumed in homes goes on space heating. I’m not sure why renewables are included in this diagram.
In chapter 3, I found this on page 35 in relation to providing heat:
- While more analysis will be required, there is some evidence to
suggest that hydrogen can offer significant cost savings for customers
compared to alternative low carbon heat sources such as electricity, or
district heating. A recent KPMG report also found it more practical and
more acceptable to customers.
- Hydrogen gas at scale will most likely require natural gas (methane)
as the source feedstock and as such in order to be low carbon, carbon
capture and storage facilities will be a necessary system requirement.
Scotland is therefore uniquely placed to support an emerging hydrogen
economy.
Aiming to replace methane as the main source of heating with hydrogen
derived from methane, produced using steam reformation, and combined
with carbon capture and storage (CCS), strikes me as totally insane.
Amongst other things, I can’t work out why methane + CCS should be
considered renewable. I am working on the thermodynamics of this
proposal that will be the subject of a forthcoming post. Steam
reformation can be summarised as follows:
Steam-methane reforming reaction
CH
4 + H
2O (+ heat) → CO + 3H
2
Water-gas shift reaction
CO + H
2O → CO
2 + H
2 (+ small amount of heat)
Combined
CH4 + 2H2O → CO2 + 4H2
Needless to say, this process, including the CCS, will use a lot of energy and money. Why not simply fit CCS to a CCGT?
Transport in Scotland accounts for 25% of energy used and is
virtually 100% FF with only a small part of the rail network electrified
(Diagram 6). The report gives no clear guidance how 50% of transport
will be converted to renewable energy. Bio fuels, and their attendant
problems, for example the use of crop lands to grow transport fuel, are
mentioned along with electric cars.
Electricity accounts for 22% of energy demand (Diagram 6) and 59% of
this already comes from renewable sources in a gross sense in 2015
(Diagram 4). In a net sense, Scotland still uses Peterhead CCGT and
imported FF electricity from England to balance the grid and to back up
when the wind does not blow.
Taking into account electricity from Scotland’s two nuclear power stations, our electricity system is already decarbonised.
Energy Trends
Diagrams 4, 11, 2, 9 and 12 all show trends in renewables production,
energy consumption or price. In general terms, as renewables
penetration rises so do prices and our energy use goes down. This is
energy poverty manufactured in Holyrood (seat of the Scottish
Government).
Diagram 4 The growth in renewables.
Diagram 4 illustrates the success of the current policy with Scotland
on track to produce 100% equivalent of supply by 2020. What the report
does not mention is that this is made possible by paying wind producers
to not produce (constraint payments) and by Scotland being able to dump
surplus power on England via the expanding array of inter connectors.
The current system is also propped up by FF electricity imports from
England. I don’t believe the consultation report mentions any of this.
Notably “other” includes solar PV, an illustration of how totally
useless solar is in dark and dreary Scotland. But this point is lost on
the authors of the report who say this on page 41:
- Solar Photovoltaic (Solar PV) capacity in Scotland is estimated to
be enough to power the equivalent of approximately 50,000 homes.
- Favourable levels of solar radiation combined with temperate climate
is conducive to further solar PV investment – especially in Eastern
Scotland and the Central Belt.
- Combining storage with wind and solar assets presents the most
valuable solution for the energy system as a whole, allowing demand to
be managed locally.
Suggesting that Scotland has favourable solar radiation and that we
can store wind and solar power locally is pure Green hogwash fantasy.
Diagram 11 shows how domestic gas and electricity bills have risen
since 2005. While wholesale gas prices have risen in this period,
politicians ought to look at Diagram 4 (above) and Diagram 11 (below)
and ask to what extent the rise in electricity price is linked to
government policy deploying expensive and unreliable renewable energy.
Diagram 11 Gas and electricity prices have
risen, in part due to rising wholesale price of gas and in part due to
the deployment of expensive renewables that incur costs in the devices
themselves, in constraint payments and system costs for interconnection,
additional load balancing service and backup.
Diagram 2 shows how nuclear generation has been
flat, cheap gas and coal have been pushed out expensive renewables have
grown in share of Scottish electricity supply.
Diagram 9 shows falling domestic gas consumption.
Falling domestic gas consumption may in part reflect improved energy
efficiency by way of more efficient boilers (furnace if you are
American) and better insulation. But it also in part reflects mounting
energy poverty where households cannot afford to use as much gas as they
once did. Once again, rising wholesale energy prices are partly to
blame. But a government policy of making consumers use expensive and
unreliable electricity will inevitably play a role.
Diagram 12 Electricity prices in Europe.
Diagram 12 shows electricity prices in Europe. Note that the large
variations in tax relate to how different countries treat subsidies.
Denmark and Germany treat subsidies as tax while the UK does not.
Politicians would do well to note that high renewables countries
Denmark, Germany, Italy, Portugal and Ireland have the highest
electricity prices while high nuclear countries Finland and France have
the lowest electricity prices.
The Scottish government’s aim of providing secure and cheap
electricity using renewables is simply a contradiction and denial of
reality.
An Integrated View of Energy Demand
Diagram 10 Scottish gas (space heating), transport (oil) and electricity (nuclear and wind that powers appliances) 2013 to 2015.
I say in the introduction that Chapter 2 of the consultation report,
Understanding Scotland’s Energy System
was informative. While its narrative leaves much to be desired, the
diagrams are very good and I’ve saved the best to last. This chart
confirms that Diagram 6 is correct, heat ahead of transport ahead of
electricity and that Diagram 1 must therefore be in error.
I believe this chart is plotting daily averages (the scale is
GWh/day) which for electricity removes the large daily cycle. But we
still see that maximum daily demand in winter is about 100 GWh and
minimum demand in summer is about 50 GWh. The electricity supply system
must be able to follow this demand pattern exactly. I will merely
observe at present that peak demand is in winter when solar PV
generation is all but zero, the exact opposite of a
favourable level.
Transport energy demand shows no seasonal pattern and appears to be
quite flat although there may be a weakly discernible upwards trend.
It is the cycle in natural gas demand (heating) that is eye popping.
Peak winter demand is 300 GWh / day. Minimum summer demand is 50 GWh /
day. At the moment this cycle is met by the oil companies opening and
closing the spigots on gas wells in the North Sea.
This factor of 6 variation in natural gas demand will be nigh
impossible to follow using renewable energy. And so enter the Scottish
Government’s sleight of hand. They propose to continue to use natural
gas, converted to hydrogen, in future and to make believe that this is
renewable energy. Calculating the cost of this folly is currently high
on my list of priorities.
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