BNEF forecasts Solar PV investments to add up to USD 3.4 trillion by 2040

Low prices for coal and gas are likely to persist, but will fail to prevent a fundamental transformation of the world electricity system over coming decades towards renewable sources such as wind and solar, and towards balancing options such as batteries, according to a long-term forecast from Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF, London and New York).

The New Energy Outlook 2016 by BNEF, charts a significantly lower track for global coal, gas and oil prices than did the equivalent projection a year ago. Crucially, however, it also shows a steeper decline for wind and solar costs.

Wind and solar costs to fall sharply; Solar PV investments will add up to USD 3.4 trillion by 2040

“Some USD 7.8 trillion will be invested globally in renewables between 2016 and 2040, two thirds of the investment in all power generating capacity, but it would require trillions more to bring world emissions onto a track compatible with the United Nations 2°C climate target,” comments Seb Henbest, head of Europe, Middle East and Africa for BNEF, and lead author of NEO 2016.

According to NEO 2016, wind and solar costs will fall sharply. The levelised costs of generation per MWh 

 

for onshore wind will fall 41% by 2040, and solar photovoltaics (PV) by 60%, making these two technologies the cheapest ways of producing electricity in many countries during the 2020s and in most of the world in the 2030s.

Utility-scale solar PV, rooftop PV and other small-scale solar will attract investments totaling USD 3.4 trillion by 2040.

Electric car boom supports electricity demand

EVs will add 2,701 TWh, or 8%, to global electricity demand in 2040 – reflecting BNEF's forecast that they will represent 35% of worldwide new light-duty vehicle sales in that year, equivalent to 41 million cars, some 90 times the 2015 figure.

Small-scale battery storage to become a USD 250 billion market

EVs will drive down the cost of lithium-ion batteries, making them increasingly deployed alongside residential and commercial solar PV systems. Total behind-the-meter storage will rise dramatically from 400 MWh now to nearly 760 GWh in 2040.

Renewables to dominate in Europe, to overtake gas in the U.S.

Wind, solar, hydro and other renewable energy plants will generate 70% of Europe's power in 2040, up from 32% in 2015. In the U.S., their share will jump from 14% in 2015 to 44% in 2040, as that from gas slips from 33% to 31%.

“The New Energy Outlook incorporates a significantly lower trajectory for coal and gas prices than the 2015 edition did a year ago but, strikingly, still shows rapid transition towards clean power over the next 25 years,” comments Jon Moore, chief executive of Bloomberg New Energy Finance.

source: http://www.solarserver.com