Mercom Capital Group (Austin,
TX, U.S.) forecasts global solar photovoltaic (PV) installations to
reach 66.7 GW with China, the United States, Japan and India to make up
the top four solar markets in 2016.
“Solar installations are forecasted to grow
year-over-year globally despite recent headwinds in the sector with
solar stocks, yieldcos, bankruptcies and the negative perception
surrounding solar public companies,” commented Raj Prabhu, CEO and
Co-Founder of Mercom Capital Group.
“Solar has grown from just 2.6 GW in 2007 to a
forecasted 66.7 GW in 2016 showing impressive resiliency along the way
as it becomes one of the fastest growing new generation sources around
the world.”
China installed 7.14 GW in Q1, 2016
China installed 15.1 GW of solar in 2015, retaining
its top spot as the largest solar installer in the world. Mercom
forecasts China to install 18.5 GW in 2016. The additional 5.3 GW
installation quota combined with the expected rush to meet FiT deadlines
in the first half of the year should help China exceed 2015
installation numbers.
China’s Q1, 2016 installation figures of 7.14 GW
confirm that it is off to a fast start. China recently reduced the FiT
by up to 11 percent based on regions. To address the subsidy payment
issues and raise additional revenue, the renewable energy surcharge has
been increased by 27 percent, and an on-grid power tariff for commercial
and industrial customers has been reduced to tackle shortages in the
renewable energy fund.
To address curtailment issues, the government has
proposed a policy of guaranteed purchase of renewable power which it
plans to implement gradually.
Mercom forecasts U.S. PV installations to reach 13.5 GW in 2016
The unexpected extension of the U.S. Investment Tax
Credit (ITC) in December 2015 has completely changed the dynamics of the
U.S. solar market.
Mercom forecasts a conservative 13.5 GW of solar
installations in 2016 as vendors are indicating a slower first quarter –
at least in terms of new projects – as developers are taking their time
to line up suppliers and negotiate contracts. This of course may change
in the second half of the year.
10.5 GW PV deployment expected in Japan
Japan is expected to install around 10.5 GW of solar this year. Its current solar installation goal is 28 GW by 2020.
Japan cut the feed-in tariff in March of 2016 by
11 percent. While the country started off with an overly generous FiT in
2012 of ¥42 (~$0.387)/kWh, it is now down to ¥24 (~$0.221)/kWh. Japan
continues to struggle with grid connection, curtailment issues, and an
undeveloped pipeline. Of the approved pipeline, only about 15 percent
has been installed. Japan is also looking to implement solar auctions in
order to cut subsidy costs.
India is expected to install over 4 GW in 2016 which
will bring it to the fourth spot globally. India currently has a
pipeline of over 21 GW under development and in pending auctions as the
country targets its installation goal of 100 GW by 2022.
Aggressive bidding in its recent auctions has caused
some concerns to the viability of these projects due to unrealistic low
bids.
The top three solar markets in Europe are again expected to be the U.K., Germany and France.
Proliferation of solar auctions around the world is
an important development over the last 12 months with subsidy costs from
solar becoming an issue in many countries.
Germany completed three auctions in 2015, the U.K.
and Japan are looking at a similar model, France is conducting solar
auctions, and China is also contemplating auctions. India and South
African solar policies are primarily based on auctions while Brazil and
Mexico are also largely auction-based.
source: http://www.solarserver.com
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